Someone's p(doom) is
55%
That's between Leike and Kokotajlo.
Where do you sit?
Prominent people have put a number on the chance that AI ends badly for humanity. Drag yours into the line-up.
Between Jan Leike (10 to 90%) and Daniel Kokotajlo (70%).
- Yann LeCun Chief AI scientist, Meta (at the time), 2023 under 0.01%
- Superforecasters Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament median, extinction by 2100, 2022 0.38%
- AI researchers AI Impacts survey of 2,778 authors, median, 2023 5%
- Vitalik Buterin Ethereum co-founder, 2023 about 10%
- Geoffrey Hinton Turing Award and Nobel laureate, 2024 10 to 20%
- Lina Khan Chair, US Federal Trade Commission (at the time), 2023 15%
- Elon Musk xAI, 2024 10 to 20%
- Yoshua Bengio Turing Award laureate, 2023 20%
- Dario Amodei CEO, Anthropic, 2023 10 to 25%
- Emmett Shear Interim CEO, OpenAI (briefly), 2023 5 to 50%
- Scott Alexander Writer, Astral Codex Ten, 2023 33%
- Paul Christiano Head of safety, US AI Safety Institute, 2023 46%
- Jan Leike Alignment lead, Anthropic, 2023 10 to 90%
- You 55%
- Daniel Kokotajlo AI Futures Project, formerly OpenAI, 2023 70%
- Dan Hendrycks Director, Center for AI Safety, 2023 over 80%
- Eliezer Yudkowsky Machine Intelligence Research Institute, 2023 over 95%
- Roman Yampolskiy AI safety researcher, University of Louisville, 2024 99.999999%
Public statements, placed at the middle of any stated range. Compiled from PauseAI's list and checked 2026-10-30. Ranges and dates matter; follow the link before quoting anyone.