AGI timeline, updated daily
How close are we to AGI?
Prediction markets put even odds on AGI by 1 January 2030. That is 3 years and 60 days from today. Below: the countdown, the year-by-year odds behind it, how the date has moved, and what the people building it say.Prediction markets put even odds on AGI by 1 January 2030. That is 3 years and 60 days to wait. Below: the countdown, the year-by-year odds behind it, how the date has moved, and what the people building it promise.
Time left, at current market pricesAGI arrives in, give or take
years days hours minutes seconds
About 3 years and 60 days until 1 January 2030.
The date where the Manifold markets on “AGI before year N” cross even odds: 1 January 2030. It moves when traders change their minds.
The odds, year by year
Manifold runs a market for each year on whether AGI arrives before it. The countdown date is where that ladder crosses even odds. Other markets price the same question in their own terms.
| AGI before | Chance |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 4% |
| 2028 | 29% |
| 2029 | 43% |
| 2030 | 50% |
| 2031 | 60% |
| 2032 | 62% |
| 2033 | 66% |
| 2034 | 68% |
| 2036 | 73% |
| 2040 | 77% |
- AGI before 2030 Manifold 50%
- AGI within five years Manifold 61%
- OpenAI announces AGI Kalshi 68%
- OpenAI claims AGI before 2027 Polymarket 7%
How the date has moved
Since 30 October 2026, when this site started publishing, the market date has moved 243 days later. The earliest it has been is 2 May 2029 and the latest 22 January 2030. Days before 30 October 2026 are drawn dashed and hold the first published value.
What the people building it say
10 public forecasts, earliest first, each placed at the middle of any range given. Some have already come and gone.
3 years and 60 days
Sam Altman: 2025
CEO, OpenAI. Said in 2024; passed.
Asked what he was excited about for 2025, he answered "AGI" and said the path there was now clear. Source.
Elon Musk: by the end of 2025
xAI. Said in 2024; passed.
AI smarter than any one human "probably around the end of next year", with all of humanity passed within five years. Source.
Dario Amodei: as early as 2026
CEO, Anthropic. Said in 2024; this year.
Powerful AI, his term for what others call AGI, could arrive as early as 2026, with the caveat that it could take much longer. Source.
Shane Legg: 50% by 2028
Co-founder and chief AGI scientist, Google DeepMind. Said in 2023; 2 years out.
A forecast he first made in 2009 and has kept: even odds of a minimal AGI by 2028. Source.
AI Futures Project: 2027 in the scenario, nearer 2028 after updates
Daniel Kokotajlo and colleagues, authors of AI 2027. Said in 2025; 2 years out.
The AI 2027 scenario had automated AI research by 2027. Later updates moved the median for a fully automated coder to 2028. Source.
Ray Kurzweil: 2029
Futurist, Google. Said in 1999; 3 years out.
Predicted in 1999 and kept unchanged through The Singularity Is Nearer in 2024. Source.
Jensen Huang: within five years, by a test-passing definition
CEO, Nvidia. Said in 2024; 3 years out.
If AGI means passing a defined set of human tests, within five years. By other definitions, much further off. Source.
Demis Hassabis: 5 to 10 years
CEO, Google DeepMind. Said in 2025; 6 years out.
Systems that match humans at any task within five to ten years, which he later put at roughly even odds. Source.
Geoffrey Hinton: within about 10 years
Turing Award and Nobel laureate. Said in 2025; 9 years out.
Shortened from "5 to 20 years, without much confidence" after leaving Google, and from 20 to 50 years before that. Source.
AI researchers: 50% by 2047
AI Impacts survey of 2,778 authors, median. Said in 2023; 21 years out.
Even odds of machines doing every task better and more cheaply than humans by 2047, thirteen years earlier than the same survey found in 2022. Source.
For comparison, the markets today say 2030: later than 7 of these forecasts and earlier than 3.
What AGI means here
Nobody agrees on a definition, so every number above comes with its own. Each Manifold market sets its own resolution criteria, which is why the ladder can bend. Kalshi asks whether OpenAI announces AGI, Polymarket whether it claims it before 2027, and neither needs the thing to exist. The named forecasts range from passing a fixed set of exams to doing every job better than people. Read each entry's own words before comparing them.
The countdown is not a forecast of ours. It is a readout of what traders believe today, and it moves when they change their minds. Most of the money on Manifold is play money, the markets are thin, and a single large bet can shift a rung by a few points. The market date feeds the forecast proximity input of the Doom Index, where it carries a quarter of the weight.
Markets from Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket, read once a day at 06:00 UTC. Named forecasts are public statements compiled by this site and checked 2 November 2026; corrections go as a pull request against the data file.